TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says until we have some failures, he doesn't share the pervasive gloomy outlook.
Where are all the bank failures? When is a Freescale (NYSE: FSL) (Cramer's Take) or an Outback going to go under? How can Cerberus put on such a happy face? Why don't some newspaper or radio station companies fail?
As I read the article on Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) (Cramer's Take) today, I am struck by its sheer negativity. The Journal article makes it sound like Goldman is sitting on a pile of huge losses, paper that's never going to sell.
But I have to remind these naysayers that this is corporate debt, and corporate debt -- unlike so much of the housing debt of 2005-2007 -- is actually based on something, some standards, that actually might get it through.
Freescale Semiconductor was bought by a private equity group in December 2006. Quarterly results since then have been disappointing. Although recently released 2Q 2007 results are up from 1Q 2007, results are still way behind comparable quarters before the company was taken private. There are numerous reasons for the last two quarters' worth of disappointing results. The first is that there continue to be many expenses related to the company's acquisition. The company also took on a heavy debt load in its acquisition. Most importantly, the wireless market overall is in a period of contraction, so sales are in decline. This is particularly true of Freescale's largest customer, the automotive industry. Freescale CEO Michael Mayer offered no prediction as to when the wireless market might become more active.
Net sales have been essentially flat in 1Q and 2Q 2007, at $1.36 billion and $1.38 billion respectively. Each of the three operating segments within Freescale lost money in 2Q 2007 when compared to a comparable quarter in 2006. The Transportation and Standard Products segment lost $92 million from 2Q 2006, posting earnings of $159 million. The Networking and Computer Solutions segment posted earnings of $328 million, down $42 million from 2Q 2006. The biggest loser by far was the Wireless and Mobile Solutions segment, which posted earnings of $353 million, down $161 million from 2Q 2006 earnings. With results like this it is no wonder Freescale has now turned to layoffs in order to cut costs, but ended up with a $38 million charge against earnings for severance costs. Losses continue to mount. Net losses for 2Q 2007 amounted to $288 million, while operating losses amounted to $268 million. If this rate of loss continues, look for Freescale to be resold or perhaps even taken public again.
It looks like Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) has achieved another breakthrough in the semiconductor sector.
According to a report in The New York Times, a new microprocessor that Intel plans to introduce uses a new insulator that leaks less current near transistors, reducing power consumption, while at the same time enabling improved processing speed/performance.
They're called 45-nanometer generation chips -- a project more than ten years in the making -- and it will help Intel reassert itself against competitors in the low-power chip segment. In its pursuit of speed, Intel had fallen behind competitors in that dimension of chips, who were shifting to low-power alternatives.
Intel's here-to-fore emphasis on processing speed is understandable; it could be argued that, along with Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) Windows breakthrough, Intel's semiconductor advances are the two engines that helped propel the impressive increases in worker productivity that have characterized the Digital Age since the early 1990s.
Further, recently Intel has been pressured by lower-cost competitors Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD), Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN), and Samsung Electronics (OTC:SSNLF), with the latter grabbing the No.1 flash memory spot from Intel.
Wall Street has duly noted these inroads by Intel's competitors, and Intel's stock -- while it has not plummeted, has languished between $17 and $23 over the past year, after a sharp down-off from $28 in late 2005. Intel's shares closed Friday at $20.53, down 7 cents.
However, if Intel's new 45-nanometer chips perform as well as the company hopes, Intel's stock may start racing ahead as well, along with the performance of PCs, laptops, and other digital devices.
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In a recent Barron's article, Andrew Barry found five such mavericks and the names that were among their top holdings as of September 30, when the last 13-F reports were filed. Sure, your timing might be off because the information is 45 days old, but these investments can at least shed light on what the best brains are thinking and possibly indicate similar plays in hot sectors.
Actually, the deal may have some synergies with Carlyle. How? Well, the buyout firm has a collection of semiconductor firms, such as Jazz. In fact, the firm was also involved in the group that purchased Freescale for $17.6 billion. Interestingly enough, Freescale and Advanced Semiconductor do much business together.
Basically, with the worldwide demand for mobile devices, as well as the expected surge from Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT)'s Vista operating system, the prospects for growth for semiconductors looks particularly bright.
And, that's probably why Advanced Semiconductor's chairman and co-founder, Jason Chang, wants to keep his 18.4 stake in the company.
The deal points to something else: US private equity firms are getting interested in Asia. As seen with the Advanced Semiconductor transaction, there are good values in the region. And, of course, US private equity firms have more than enough money to get the deals done. What's more, the lending markets in Asia are particularly attractive because of the rock-bottom interest rates.
Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and operates InvestorOffering.com.
Traditionally, private equity firms have focused on brick-and-mortar companies. The targets are often underperforming – yet have strong cash flows and stable contracts.
But, recently, private equity firms have moved to tech companies. And some of the deals have been huge, such as the $17.6 billion buyout of Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. (NYSE:FSL) and the $11.4 billion Sungard buyout.
So, is this the beginning of a major trend?
The answer is "no" from a top credit analysis firm, Fitch Ratings.
Why?
First, tech companies are not ideal for loading-up the balance sheet with debt. That is, the free cash flow tends to be too low – or too erratic. Besides, there is "technology risk," in which a company's products can become obsolete from intense competitive forces.
Next, because of the dot-com implosion, many tech companies have already restructured operations. In other words, there is little opportunity for improvement that a private equity can provide.